From April 3, 2008:

(from Wikipedia)

History

In 1861, Mexico ceased making interest payments to its main creditors. In response, in late 1861, France (and other European countries) attacked Mexico to try to force payment of this debt. France decided that it would try to take over and occupy Mexico.

God is telling you something

For the first time in history, the price of gold and platinum are almost exactly the same.  Think about that.  This has never happened before, ever. 

Put another way: you have some gold, and you can trade it in for the same weight in platinum.

I don't know if that's bearish for gold (it goes to $500) or superbullish for platinum (back to $1580) but it is clearly a situation which cannot last.  Plan accordingly.

(Original idea here.)

     Pearson's r = 0.943, that's amazing.
     Maybe CNBC viewers are exhausted.  But they're checking out, and if Professor Pearson has anything to say about this, VIX has to fall very soon.
     FYI, the VIX is at the highest point in 20 years.  Remember 800.  It is inevitable.
I'll write something funny, maybe about narcissism, for you all on Saturday.  You know, to go with the rum.

Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures.  Move.

If you do not need to sell, don't.

The markets are tanking more than is necessary for even the most severe recession.  What makes it scary is that it is happening in days, not months, relentless-- it's happening in internet time. 

The S&P500 goes to 800 and Dow to 7500, these are inevitabilities.  But you can't trade it because the volatility is too high-- so don't.

Some people need to sell-- especially hedge funds caught the wrong way; or people selling the good stocks to raise money to cover debts, taxes, redemptions, whatever.

If you have cash and can wait for 800 and 7500, then feel free to buy then.  Stocks aren't falling, they are being stomped on, compressed.  When the real companies rebound, their stocks will likely explode higher, like.. a coiled spring.

Let me quote the late, great, Mitch Hedberg: "I'm tired of following my dreams. I'm just going to figure out where they're going, and hook up with them later."

Don't follow the market.  Just meet it at 800.

As government officials flounder trying to explain why the most important fiscal maneuver in U.S. history is so necessary, I offer a potential Presidential speech.  With footnotes.

Books will be written about this financial crisis, but no one has brought up one important factor,  and it is summarized by this single soundbite, from Friday September 17, 2008, at exactly 4:00pm EST:

"...and there's the closing bell, I'm Bob Pisani, and I just have to say in my 18 years at CNBC, I have never been more proud of my news team than I am now...."

They are good reporters, dedicated and hardworking, I'll give him that, but was the reporting itself better than it was on other days?  What else would there be to be proud of?

Gun to head, this is the bottom.

They didn't cut rates, but they did issue new Treasuries because the Fed needs money.  And no, there's no inflation, because banks are deflating hard.  We may come out of this alive, who knows.  (Though for current retirees who had money in "buy and hold" safe financials-- or anything else, for that matter-- well... there's always Social Security.  I know, I know, I know.)

They also stopped naked short selling, which is huge.  I thought that was already illegal?

For you technical traders:

Choose:

$5 today or $10 in a year.

It started with the Vytorin study, and my belief that doctors purposely misstated the results in order to support/portray an anti-Pharma bias.  The stock tanked, but I predicted that  eventually reality would set in, and so the American College of Cardiology was giving me the  opportunity to make 20%.

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush if that bush is a pricker bush.  And only if people actually want birds, not bushes.

It's not good.