Choose:

$5 today or $10 in a year.

It started with the Vytorin study, and my belief that doctors purposely misstated the results in order to support/portray an anti-Pharma bias.  The stock tanked, but I predicted that  eventually reality would set in, and so the American College of Cardiology was giving me the  opportunity to make 20%.

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush if that bush is a pricker bush.  And only if people actually want birds, not bushes.

It's not good.

And by implodes, I mean that the government herds us into recession and into psych clinics.

Today Secretary Paulson says he doesn't want to rush into more rate cuts-- or any economic stimulus.  "Thoughtful" and "patience."

I guess surgeons can be thoughtful and patient, too, when they're doing, say, breast augmentation.  But when the spleen and the pancreas both have grenade fragments in them, well, get cutting, Doc.

This is how I know we're entering a recession.

That's a still from Jay-Z's video, "Blue Magic."  The significance of the shot should be obvious to anyone, whether or not they trade currencies.  Why it's not obvious is the real question.

So I was pretty much dead on: GS went to from 190 to 240; GOOG went to Pluto; oil closed at $93 yesterday; and gold went from $720 to $792. As for Dow 15000, wait a month. I was even right about Angelina Jolie; I was wrong about the corn, though.

Tomorrow the Fed will cut .25 because, and this is important, everyone expects them to. I think they would rather not cut, because they see an inflationary picture, high oil, high gold, and strong employment, and no obvious slowdown in consumption. But the Fed game is about managing expectations, because surprise actually hurts the market more than the "wrong" decision. In this case, though, it's the right one. The inflationary picture only applies to rich people; to the others, the picture is recessionary: they're living on credit. Or off their house's value, which turns out is made of gingerbread.

If you want the next investable tip, it's Vegas: put money down on a Republican President. Or, if I am wrong and they don't cut, double down on Clinton.

(Long GOOG, gold, oil; still short Iran, and about to cover on Angelina Jolie.)

 

 

The quote, "what hath God wrought" comes from Numbers 23:23, about the Israelites, but it was popularized by Samuel Morse when he sent it as the first message over the telegraph.

I've been telling everyone who will listen to buy Google-- it's up 140 points since I wrote about it a month ago-- because it is more than an investment, it is a paradigm shift.

Wow.  Wow.  Fed cuts 50 basis points.

The Fed did the only thing it could do, given the circumstances.  Now people can maybe keep their homes, maybe we don't slide into recession.

But oil goes to $93 and gold to $800, and people think twice about buying corn.  Meanwhile GS goes to 220 and the Dow to 15000.  And the split between rich and poor becomes visibly wider.

Oh, you want a psychiatry angle.  Ok.  Zero percent chance of universal healthcare in the next 5 years.

 

(disclosure: long gold, GS, GOOG; short Iran and Angelina Jolie.) 

It really depends on what you're asking. But the answer is yes.  But don't by LLY yet.

So the Fed has an interesting problem: whatever it does-- raise rates, cut rates, etc-- it causes a Moral Hazard, but to different people.  To whom does it want to teach the wrong lesson?

Or, choose: rich get decimated, poor get poorer; or rich get richer, poor get by? 

 

 

Here’s what’s happening in the stock market: people bought stocks on credit, and now they can’t pay it back because the interest rates are too high, and their collateral caught on fire.  And the lenders want their money back, now. 

This has everything to do with psychiatry. 

 

Hi.  Vote for me for Best Medical Blog.

http://www.medgadget.com/2006bestmedical.php 

These are five more steps.  This is tentative; what I plan to do is consolidate and reorganize  the 10 steps into one post.  But I think there is still value in this draft.

Hi. On 9/25 I recommended 5 stocks.  Here's where we stand one month later:
 

BRK.B    3123   3333 +210 (7%)
SHLD     160   180    +20   (13%)
GOOG    404     480  +76   (19%)
USO        56      52   -4   (-7%)
COP        57      61   +4   (7%)
AAPL       76      81   +5   (7%)

 

For comparison, the S&P rose 4% during this month.   

So there you go.  And, for the record, I now own only GOOG and BRK.  USO should continue to fall (and so should consequently, COP) until either it gets really, really cold outside, or until April (it is cyclical, after all.)  But when USO goes up, GOOG should go down. 

And USO is a winning play over the next decade. I can only be sure of that with SHLD and BRK. 

In case anyone cares at all, I also own AKAM; I'll be buying back AAPL this week; and I'm looking at ATI.   These should be solid plays until Christmas, though I'm expecting some sort of massive retracement this week.

I was sent a question from a recent college grad about whether to go into psychology or psychiatry.  I don't know which is better; you should decide which you like yourself.  But I can help you succeed in either one.

 

Since I graduated residency, I have never-- never-- had a patient ask me where I went to college, medical school, or residency.   Whether I went to Harvard or Guatemala,  no one would know.

 

It's true that people assume I'm good because I work in an academic institution, so it lends me credibility. And it helps in court, tremendously, to say I work at said academic institution. 

 

But if you are thinking of being a private practice clinician, it matters not  a lick where you went to school-- or fellowship  (so don't go.)

 

What matters is how you set up your practice. 

Following the logic above-- and you will initially doubt this, but bear with me-- it doesn't matter, financially, whether you go into psychiatry or psychology.   What matters is how you go into the practice of either.

I'll just refer to psychology right now.  And I'm going to talk about money only, not personal fulfillment or career advancement or awards-- all that is your business, and there are plenty of resources to help you.  I'm trying to tell you about the money side, which no one else seems ever to want to talk about.

The key difference in the need for psychiatrists and psychologists is the duration of follow-up.  The shortage for psychiatrists exists for long term follow-up in Medicaid/Medicare patients. The shortage for psychologists is for short term and CBT for private insurance patients.

To get rich in psychology, it is not necessary to have the best paying patients, but rather to have a steady stream of patients, whether they pay well or not.  If you have a waiting list, you win.   How to get such a stream?

If I was a good psychologist-- PhD helpful but not necessary, master's is fine-- I would find two or three good psychiatrists and set up a group.  Every patient that comes through them has to have at least an initial eval with you, and vise versa.    This guarantees you volume, which is great, and many of the patients will continue on with you.  But even those that don't are still a win, because that first session can be billed at a higher rate. 

I would find the nearest academic institution with a "residents' clinic."  That's a gold mine.  There are a lot of private insurance patients there, who need short term therapy.   These academic clinics almost never have enough therapists, because the ones that are on staff are not really incentivized to see extra patients; they're on salary.  So there is a massive number of patients who could benefit from therapy, but are on a waiting list, etc, etc.  It seems unbelievable, so I'll say it again: university clinics need to refer out.   If you can get that overflow, if you can get one or two docs there to vouch for you and tell everyone to refer to you, you win.  How do you get them to vouch for you? Well, go back to my Steps: you need a specialty.  Do you do CBT?  Supportive therapy?  Grief counseling?  You can do everything if you want, but it is vital that you be known for regular therapy AND something specific.  You business card should read, "Grief Counseling and General Therapy" or something like that. 

That makes you different and better than other therapists, even if you're not.  And makes it ok for you to approach a psychiatrist to get referrals.  "Hi, I'm a therapist, send me patients" is very different than, "Hi, I specialize in Grief Counseling, short and long term, so if you have any patients..."  Again, the unbelievable truth about referrals: the referrer doesn't actually have to be certain you are an expert-- hell, they don't even have to know you are legitimate.  If your niche is sufficiently small, they simply won't have any other names available when they get cornered by a patient.  And if they have no other such "expert" in their minds, you will get the referrals.  And if just one patient reports back to the psychiatrist that you're good, you win.

Try to meet psychiatrists wherever you can, but the best place I know is through drug reps.  Go to one of the "drug dinners" and meet the psychiatrists who attend.  Find a psychiatrist-parent-- hell, any kind of doctor-- in your kid's school, meet them, let them know you're open for business.  Meet the guidance counselor, tell them you specialize in adolescent issues. (Obviously, make sure you actually do specialize in adolescent issues.)  Or Family Systems model.  Or divorcing parents.  Etc.

 

Remember: it's not "why refer to me?" It's, "who else are they going to refer to?"  A doctor who has any sort of emotional connection to you (i.e. met you once) will more likely refer to you than anyone else. 

If you want to work the "best paying patients" angle, then you are looking to work with cash only, reasonably affluent patients.  Ok-- why would they pick you?  Because you went to Harvard?  Because you have a PhD.?  No.  Either a) you in their insurance network so they can get reimbursed; b) they were referred to you.  And so we are back to the beginning: you need a niche, an area of expertise.  I am sure there are patients who would prefer to go to someone who did "Psychodynamic Therapy and General Psychotherapy" even if they simply needed grief counseling, because they'll assume you're better.

 

I'll write more about this later. 

 

No one ever tells you this stuff in residency.  So I'm going to give you ten steps towards wealth.  This isn't about being a better doctor, okay?  That's what all the other posts are for.  This is simply about making money.