Money
The Coming Global Collapse, Sponsored By British Airways
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Where Are They Now?
how the mighty have fallen...
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Cinco de Mayo Is Not Mexican Independence Day
History
In 1861, Mexico ceased making interest payments to its main creditors. In response, in late 1861, France (and other European countries) attacked Mexico to try to force payment of this debt. France decided that it would try to take over and occupy Mexico.
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No One Noticed
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Good Game, America
Platinum vs. Gold
You wait a couple months, then you gonna see
You'll never find nobody better than me
In the night I hear them talk- the coldest story ever told
somewhere far along this road he lost his soul
To a woman so heartless
That woman is credit, her power is flattery...
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Has Anyone Noticed That Price Of Gold And Platinum Is The Same?
Put another way: you have some gold, and you can trade it in for the same weight in platinum.
I don't know if that's bearish for gold (it goes to $500) or superbullish for platinum (back to $1580) but it is clearly a situation which cannot last. Plan accordingly.
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CNBC Ratings And VIX Predict Rum Sales
(Original idea here.)
Pearson's r = 0.943, that's amazing.
Maybe CNBC viewers are exhausted. But they're checking out, and if Professor Pearson has anything to say about this, VIX has to fall very soon.
FYI, the VIX is at the highest point in 20 years. Remember 800. It is inevitable.
I'll write something funny, maybe about narcissism, for you all on Saturday. You know, to go with the rum.
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The Next Step: Suspend The Capital Gains Tax, and The Market
Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures. Move.
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This Shall Pass
If you do not need to sell, don't.
The markets are tanking more than is necessary for even the most severe recession. What makes it scary is that it is happening in days, not months, relentless-- it's happening in internet time.
The S&P500 goes to 800 and Dow to 7500, these are inevitabilities. But you can't trade it because the volatility is too high-- so don't.
Some people need to sell-- especially hedge funds caught the wrong way; or people selling the good stocks to raise money to cover debts, taxes, redemptions, whatever.
If you have cash and can wait for 800 and 7500, then feel free to buy then. Stocks aren't falling, they are being stomped on, compressed. When the real companies rebound, their stocks will likely explode higher, like.. a coiled spring.
Let me quote the late, great, Mitch Hedberg: "I'm tired of following my dreams. I'm just going to figure out where they're going, and hook up with them later."
Don't follow the market. Just meet it at 800.
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The World Is At A 52 Week Low, And The Past 10 Years Never Happened
In retrospect all things are obvious, but someone should marvel that today's close is merely 10 points different (lower) than the exact same date 10 years ago.
And you have to ask whether God has built the world as zero sum-- i.e. this is the bottom-- or as a cyclical spiral-- in which case we are destined for 800.
And the rest of the world is no different. Click "Continue" for other charts.
Oh, and pay close attention to that bottom in February 2003, and ask yourself what might have ended such a precipitous fall and coincided with the beginning of the largest bull run in history.
I'm not a tin foil hat nut, but I'll reveal something about myself: for the very first time in my life, I am scared.
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CNBC Ratings Predicts Bailout To Pass, VIX To Fall
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CNBC Ratings Seem Correlated To Future Market Volatility
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My Fellow Americans: The Speech President Bush Should Give
As government officials flounder trying to explain why the most important fiscal maneuver in U.S. history is so necessary, I offer a potential Presidential speech. With footnotes.
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Does CNBC Cause Market Volatility?
Books will be written about this financial crisis, but no one has brought up one important factor, and it is summarized by this single soundbite, from Friday September 17, 2008, at exactly 4:00pm EST:
"...and there's the closing bell, I'm Bob Pisani, and I just have to say in my 18 years at CNBC, I have never been more proud of my news team than I am now...."
They are good reporters, dedicated and hardworking, I'll give him that, but was the reporting itself better than it was on other days? What else would there be to be proud of?
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Market Capitulation
Gun to head, this is the bottom.
They didn't cut rates, but they did issue new Treasuries because the Fed needs money. And no, there's no inflation, because banks are deflating hard. We may come out of this alive, who knows. (Though for current retirees who had money in "buy and hold" safe financials-- or anything else, for that matter-- well... there's always Social Security. I know, I know, I know.)
They also stopped naked short selling, which is huge. I thought that was already illegal?
For you technical traders:
If we hold 10827, then that's a double bottom and we go to 12500, maybe even 13000. By January. Not sure how that's possible, but there it is.
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The Hidden Zero Effect
Choose:
$5 today or $10 in a year.
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Update on Schering Plough
Technically, it was only 18%, but I'll take it. Sold today. Likely goes to 20, but I only bought it to prove a point: doctors, especially in committees, cannot be trusted with their own data, and politics always wins over science. I was able to make money on the politics, but what about the patients who are pawns in this game, who think they're getting "evidence based" care?
Good luck, everyone. You'll need it.
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Intrinsic Value of Money
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush if that bush is a pricker bush. And only if people actually want birds, not bushes.
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Economy: Where We Go From Here
It's not good.
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