January 24, 2008

A Quick Word On Google

Dropping over 150 points in a few days is worth a comment.

Google, like MO or MCD, is a recession proof stock.  It's business doesn't depend on credit, or even consumers.  It's theoretically possible advertisers will spend less with Google, but advertisers don't usually cut back on ads-- especially targeted ads. (We'll know if I'm right next week.)

However, it is a high priced momentum stock, and as such is the first to elicit the "no way am I the last one holding this" feeling.  You sell it, and suddenly your $600 "richer."

I'm not a technician, but unfortunately everyone else on the planet it: when you see falls like that, you have to ask where does it stop?  And the 200 dma is a good guess.  So if you selling yesterday was illogical: 570 is a floor, because everyone believes it to be. 

So I wait, earnings next week.

A word on the Fed: there is a not implausible case to be made that he is not reacting to the markets, as some say, or even "behind the curve" but is specifically targeting traders out of resentment.  Example: the cut came Monday morning-- after options expiration, when all the money had already been lost.  You say: well, that was a reaction to Europe; but he did the same exact thing in August, waiting until precisely after expiration to announce a discount rate cut.  And the overall odd way of parcing out information-- it appears designed for maximal pain.  Just a thought.

Anyway, Google is still on track, soon to be the global supplier of personal information to totalitarian regimes everywhere.

(long GOOG, MO; short the Fed, humanity, truth, the Red Pill)