August 31, 2011

The Wisdom Of Crowds Turns Into Madness

less independent than they think

In PNAS, an article which is intuitively obvious but terrifying to see played out in science.

The "Wisdom Of Crowds" concept is that the average guesses of a crowd will be closer to the truth than a randomly selected individual guess.

The reason this works is that because the crowd has different individuals with different types of systematic error, e.g. prejudices.  With more individuals,  the prejudices negate each other.

The Swiss study took 144 college students and asked them a series of questions (population of Switzerland, murder rate, etc).  It recorded 5 consecutive guesses, as well as the confidence for the first and last guess.


The first interesting finding is that the crowd is sometimes so incredibly wrong that the mean of their responses is just... really wrong.  How many assaults were there in Switzerland in 2006?  10?  100?  1000? 10000? 100000?  Those are exponentially different guesses, so an arithmetic mean could be way off, factors of ten off.

In such cases, a geometric mean is much closer to the correct answer.  So, point number one, when you are crowdsourcing, choose your mean/distribution appropriately. 

pnas lorenz table 1.JPG

The diversity of guesses is quite large-- everyone comes to the question with their own prejudices and errors.

But merely by giving the subjects access to the previous round's guesses-- either the mean of the guesses ("aggregated information") or everyone's individual guess, the diversity disappears and everyone's guesses begin to converge.

pnas collective error.jpg

The first round the guesses were wildly disparate, but as everyone got to see the other guesses, they converge remarkably.

Why did having the full information (all 12 people's individual guesses) seem to cause less convergence than having the mean of their guesses?  It didn't, really; but also because the aggregate is only one number that you converge to; having 12 wildly disparate numbers to converge to is harder.  But by the third round, it hardly mattered-- a systematic bias had been introduced into the crowd, which is ironic since it is systematic bias that the Wisdom Of Crowds is supposed to negate.  Moo.


People following the herd would be boring but not disastrous, except for the other finding.

the guesses converge, since other people are converging with you and you can see that, the confidence in these guesses goes up: a false belief of collective accuracy with no increase in actual accuracy.  "It's unanimous!"  Yikes.

Also remember, these people weren't being given an expert's guess to converge to,  just other (regular) people's.  As the authors point out, they didn't even attempt to measure group leader effects, persuasion, talking heads on TV, or twitter.

This is not a trivial problem.  It isn't just saying that the beliefs converge; it is saying that since the beliefs converge along with greater confidence in their "truthfulness", it becomes more difficult for any individual to not converge as well-- and feel confident about it.

If you do manage to run from the herd you have to climb a high wall.  "Can so many people be so wrong, yet so close together in their guesses?  So wrong, yet so confident?  Is everyone insane?"

You can imagine the social implications of a highly energized crowd, or electorate, or laity, or polity, or tax base, all converging on a "truth" of which they are supremely confident by virtue of the fact that others believe the same (which is the result of similar convergence on their part.)  This is probably supercharged when you have a charismatic figurehead leading convergence, and by "charismatic figurehead" I mean media; no one person came up with this, everyone just knows it's true.


So much for the paper.  Now consider the more general implications.

"Well, I'm going to be an independent thinker and not be affected by the herd and make my own educated guess."  No, you won't. 

The moment you have the other people's guesses, you cannot shake that information.  Your "independent" guess necessarily includes that guess in some way, you can't unlearn it.  Either your guess converges towards the herd, or your guess is characterized as against the herd.  Either way, the herd affected your thinking in ways you don't realize.  You're part of the dialectic and you didn't even want to be.   That you don't want to be part of it ensures you are part of it.

The existence of the convergence of ideas, knowing that a convergence exists, either attracts further groupthink, or sets up a second groupthink in opposition to the first.  Groupthink certainly reinforces one idea; and it can cause the setting up of a second large idea in opposition, but it makes a third independent idea highly unlikely (unless, again, it forms in opposition to ideas 1 or 2.)

In other words, in cases where social influence is impossible to avoid, the wisdom of crowds becomes the madness of crowds even for those who disagree with the crowd.  All it takes is one idiot with a megaphone.


How to use your own inherent narcissism to guess more accurately

The special circumstance which causes the wisdom of crowds to fail


It's true for just about an... (Below threshold)

August 31, 2011 12:44 PM | Posted by Kevin: | Reply

It's true for just about any piece of extraneous information. If you change the environment and context of just about any question, you get a different answer. E.g. parole board decisions in the morning versus the afternoon. Humans just ain't rational.

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So, when you are in crowds,... (Below threshold)

August 31, 2011 1:21 PM | Posted by André: | Reply

So, when you are in crowds, you don't lose your individuality, but your individuality is changed by the crowd?

Good post, btw.

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TLP: You're part of the di... (Below threshold)

August 31, 2011 2:07 PM | Posted by Gary: | Reply

TLP: You're part of the dialectic and you didn't even want to be. That you don't want to be part of it ensures you are part of it.

Freud: If you arrive late for the appointment, you're passive aggressive, if you arrive early you're anxious, and if you arrive on time, you're obessive.

There's no escaping it. Sit back, relax, and enjoy the ride.

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So is it *ever* possible to... (Below threshold)

August 31, 2011 2:11 PM | Posted by AL: | Reply

So is it *ever* possible to be an "individual"? Or to know that you are not insane?

God, this is depressing ...

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Try playing a game of <a hr... (Below threshold)

August 31, 2011 3:40 PM | Posted by sdenheyer: | Reply

Try playing a game of Paranoid Debating to observe how this works, both within a group and inside your mind.

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Not me man, I think for mys... (Below threshold)

August 31, 2011 3:54 PM | Posted by Lady Gaga Fan: | Reply

Not me man, I think for myself!

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Not sure why I can't just l... (Below threshold)

August 31, 2011 4:16 PM | Posted by Dev Thakur: | Reply

Not sure why I can't just learn from this and try to go beyond it.

"I don't have to go with the group, but I don't have to oppose them either, and I should systematically generate all the possible other answers ...

okay now let me try to figure out which answer makes the most sense ...

and further let me step back and look at my answers in general ... do they tend to line up with one group or another ...

if they do, I can reaxamine more closely to see if I think that's because I'm just following that group, or because those answers actually make the most sense ...

finally I can acknowledge that though I'm still affected by the groupthink, at least I'm not totally dominated by it as I would be if I never considered it ...

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Because no matter how thoro... (Below threshold)

August 31, 2011 6:03 PM | Posted, in reply to Dev Thakur's comment, by ThomasR: | Reply

Because no matter how thorough or analytical and self-aware you may be about your opinions and how they were/are affected by others, you will never know what opinion you might have had if you had never known what others thought.

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Also known as an <a href="h... (Below threshold)

August 31, 2011 6:21 PM | Posted by Dr. Science: | Reply

Also known as an information cascade.

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"it is systematic bias that... (Below threshold)

August 31, 2011 7:32 PM | Posted by Porejide: | Reply

"it is systematic bias that the Wisdom Of Crowds is supposed to negate" - nope. WOC is about averaging out *random* errors.

This paper is like an elixir for demonstrating that people (even quite erudite thinkers like yourself, TLP) don't really grok the idea behind the WOC. E.g., see

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How could one possibly infe... (Below threshold)

September 1, 2011 5:08 AM | Posted by Ramachandra: | Reply

How could one possibly infer anything soundly about the truth of a matter merely on the basis of a collection of opinions or guesses or prejudices? Try doing something sensible, e.g., ask a bunch of people to observe something, think about it, and then come to a conclusion. Now compare that with the truth. This will tell tell us something worth taking seriously about the proper exercise of our faculties and the outcomes yielded by a proper exercise of our faculties.

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It is about bias. If you as... (Below threshold)

September 1, 2011 7:28 AM | Posted, in reply to Porejide's comment, by Or: | Reply

It is about bias. If you asked the same person to estimate the value of some similar figure they would likely make an error in the same direction as the first, e.g. if they grossly overestimated the number of rapes they would likely overestimate the number of murders. The idea is that every individual person has a systematic bias within the domain of questions that are being asked, but the biases themselves are treated as a random variable among the population at large; if you randomly select a person, his systematic error becomes a random error in your sample.

That post by Peter Freed is long and rambling, and unfortunately it is terribly unclear in its attempt to reiterate a crucial point stated in the study as follows*: "In the “aggregated information” condition, subjects could reconsider their estimate after having received the average (arithmetic mean) of all 12 estimates of the former round."

But here's what the researchers say about the arithmetic mean, which they report to the subjects after each round of estimates...

"In our case, the arithmetic mean performs poorly, as we have validated by comparing its distance to the truth with the individual distances to the truth. In only 21.3% of the cases is the arithmetic mean closer to the truth than the individual first estimates."

... as opposed to the geometric mean, which they use as a measure the crowd's wisdom after the fact:

"When using logarithms of estimates, the arithmetic mean is closer to the logarithm of the truth than the individuals’ estimates in 77.1% of the cases. This confirms that the geometric mean (i.e., exponential of the mean of the logarithmized data) is an accurate measure of the wisdom of crowds for our data."

Assuming the tendency is to update your estimate in the direction of the aggregated statistic, by reporting the arithmetic mean the researchers ensured that a majority of the subjects would produce a second estimate less accurate than the first, but by reporting the geometric a majority would have given better estimates. It seems that the group was not adjusting its estimates in deference to the wisdom of the crowd, but to the experimenters' authority in choosing a statistic to represent that wisdom. The mistake driving the decrease of their "wisdom-of-crowd indicator" is really appeal to authority as much as it is argumentum ad populum.

From a footnote: "Considering the logarithmic nature of our data, one may argue that the geometric mean would have been a better design choice than the arithmetic mean for the information feedback in the aggregated information condition. However, this measure is hard to understand for most subjects because it necessitates confidence with logarithmic transformations. As the simple average (i.e., arithmetic mean) is known from daily life, this information is more meaningful for subjects. Hence, we decided for the arithmetic mean."

Translation: We assumed these college students were stupid so we gave them data that would prove they were stupid. (The very last footnote also contains more information about why the methods led to the results they got, and in fact implies that they were studying the properties of log-normal distributions more than the properties of human decision-making. It should be the main conclusion of the study.)

Out of everybody involved in this, including the researchers, Freed, and Lehrer, only the lowly undergraduates did an admirable job.

*Also, Freed amazingly fails to notice the main problem with Lehrer's WSJ article: namely that he COMPLETELY fucking lied by saying "each round led to worse guesses." I can't give him the benefit of the doubt here; certainly any Rhodes scholar, or at least the kind of person a Rhodes scholar would hire to read a paper so he doesn't have to, can correctly interpret graph E.

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I'd also crack some jokes a... (Below threshold)

September 1, 2011 7:37 AM | Posted by Or: | Reply

I'd also crack some jokes about how Freed can't stop referencing Malcolm Gladwell in a post whose thesis is that Lehrer is a journalist and not a neuroscientist, but I really need to go to bed.

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Even if you could learn tha... (Below threshold)

September 1, 2011 7:43 AM | Posted by Guy Fox: | Reply

Even if you could learn that this happens and gird yourself to be immune to the effect, it wouldn't necessarily matter because exactly this effect makes much of the world turn, and no individual can swim against that kind of current. How much is a piece of paper, 157mm x 66 mm, 75% cotton/25% linen, worth? Nothing? A pizza? A keg of beer? A Thai teenager to call your own? It can be all of those things, depending on what people collectively agree to be the case.

Sure, the study asked about quasi-natural facts (would be plain 'natural' if Switzerland were a real country), but these mean nothing. They're just trivia. As soon as they start to mean something and start to earn the title 'Truth' (i.e. not 'how many rapes occurred?' but 'how many rapes is so many that we need to start locking women up for their own safety/extending police powers/chopping dangly bits off?"), the answer will be, always has been, and perhaps can only be determined by exactly this mechanism. Yes, it's the crowds doing it. Let's hope that it approximates 'wisdom'.

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"we need to start locking w... (Below threshold)

September 1, 2011 8:24 AM | Posted by Anonymous: | Reply

"we need to start locking women up for their own safety" People always say it this way... if the stats were "unreasonably high" for the percent of man on woman rape.... wouldn't it make more sense to lock all the men up for the safety of the women? I mean if a bunch of tigers escaped the zoo and were rooming the city and only 6% had ever killed anyone.... would we recapture ALL of the lions for the safety of the people or would we tell people to stay in doors in hiding for the rest of their lives?

I'm just saying it's interesting if one segment of the population was statistically likely to prey on another segment of the population--- you would consider it more ethical to put the potential victims through a life spent in hiding rather than the potential predators. It's unthinkable that innocent men have their free life taken away simply because women keep getting raped, but innocent women's freedom should be expendable "for their own good" if women keep getting raped.

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PS- Guy fox- I'm nitpicking... (Below threshold)

September 1, 2011 8:27 AM | Posted by Anonymous: | Reply

PS- Guy fox- I'm nitpicking, your comment was otherwise good. ;)

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And remember: psych meds, a... (Below threshold)

September 1, 2011 8:46 AM | Posted by medsvstherapy: | Reply

And remember: psych meds, and not psychotherapy, should always be first-line treatment for any mental disorder. Care should always begin with a psychaitrist's assessment. If that psychiatrist happens to know a local therapist, the psychiatrist might suggest psychotherapy.

If a psychiatrist is not available, any physician will do.

Could 40,000 pharmaceutical reps be wrong?

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While the irony of quoting ... (Below threshold)

September 1, 2011 11:18 AM | Posted by Larrykoubiak: | Reply

While the irony of quoting Monty Python in a comment about individuality is quite obvious, i just can't resist :

Brian: Please, please, please listen! I've got one or two things to say.
The Crowd: Tell us! Tell us both of them!
Brian: Look, you've got it all wrong! You don't NEED to follow ME, You don't NEED to follow ANYBODY! You've got to think for your selves! You're ALL individuals!
The Crowd: Yes! We're all individuals!
Brian: You're all different!
The Crowd: Yes, we ARE all different!
Man in crowd: I'm not...
The Crowd: Sch!

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So your conclusion is what,... (Below threshold)

September 1, 2011 11:28 AM | Posted by CubaLibre: | Reply

So your conclusion is what, Hegelian? All important ideas are dialectical responses to older ideas? That in itself isn't a world-shattering claim. Seems pretty reasonable actually.

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You are bearing on (I dare ... (Below threshold)

September 4, 2011 4:32 PM | Posted by rontom: | Reply

You are bearing on (I dare say) a false dichotomy: if by being an individual you differ from the thinking of the crowd, your unique thinking directly depends on the general thinking of the crowd, and therefore, your thoughts no matter how uniquely derived, reflects not you at all but the crowd. This undercuts all the discoveries and inventions made in science. Sorry, individuality remains

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Actually I diverge from the... (Below threshold)

September 4, 2011 5:46 PM | Posted by Datura: | Reply

Actually I diverge from the crowd a helluva lot. I'm a high functioning Aspie, and one of the blessings/curses that comes with this is major pattern recognition ability. Lucky me, I recognize behavior patterns.

One of the patterns I recognize very quickly is Bandar-Log... "We all have said it; it must be true."

Soon as I see that little meme eddying about, I can predict the next pattern - "Death to the unbeliever!"

The best response to this is to get the hell away from it. As early as possible in the Bandar-Log stage. Collective insanity indeed...

Wonder if Kipling was Aspie. But more to the point, how the hell has the human race survived this long with the collective mentality of a troop of howler monkeys? I see this pattern on a daily basis, on issues large and small, and the older I get, the more frightening that is.

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I don't think individuality... (Below threshold)

September 6, 2011 1:23 PM | Posted, in reply to rontom's comment, by Anonymous: | Reply

I don't think individuality is even possible for us. Humans are first and foremost a social species, perhaps not as lockstep as a colony of ants, but we aren't exactly cats either. And the whole wisdom of crowds thing is more a social reinforcement phenomena than anything. The whole thing seems to revolve around the idea of converging around a mean number. But it doesn't work if you have no idea of the actual facts.

If I asked about how many apples were sold at piggly wiggly today, we'd converge around a mean, BUT it would only be the truth if someone involved knew something about apples and grocery stores. I think the wisdom of crowds is more illusion than anything real. It doesn't give you information about the world out there, just what people think is out there. Wikipedia is great for general interest things that work in a common sense way, but it doesn't work as well when it's something in science or math that doesn't work in a commonsense way.

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Alone, you should di... (Below threshold)

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i think alone has been writ... (Below threshold)

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i think alone has been writing these in his native german

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Thank you again. S... (Below threshold)

November 7, 2014 12:10 PM | Posted by x: | Reply

Thank you again.

So, you're saying that the concept of "the wisdom of the crowds" is based on a model which imply independent guesses, but in real life there are no true independence, since we in fact are aware of other peoples opinions.


You're saying that beliefs converge, that no-one wants to be a lone nut and that is more relevant for how we arrive at a verdict than rationality. And that most of the time, we know that something is true because we observe other people seems to know it, that we feel each other, feel me?

Man that's depressing.

I'm glad for being aware of the fact that statistics (aggregate information) only informs me about a population, it doesn't tell me anything about any of the individuals. Since when did new ideas originate in a crowd?

Though I (as usual) agree with what you're saying (you're so good for me), I I I would like to point out that a social concept of knowledge is necessary.

How do I know that an idea is true or useful? Rationality is common, universal, the same, for all humans. Personally, I expect the revolution to be based on consensus, a convergence of beliefs based on rationality and love, not fear.

It might be that I'm expecting what I desire. We'll see.

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Some scientist has suggeste... (Below threshold)

November 7, 2014 2:12 PM | Posted by MeeeMeeeeeeMEEEEEEEE: | Reply

Some scientist has suggested that for convergence based on rationality to occur, love must be implemented.

It means that unselfish behavior must be codified, standardized and most importantly, measured - so we can know.

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Sure, we're all still indiv... (Below threshold)

January 3, 2015 1:09 AM | Posted, in reply to AL's comment, by Knee-heel: | Reply

Sure, we're all still individuals. Just very, very silly ones.

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I've just read the Neurosel... (Below threshold)

January 18, 2015 12:25 AM | Posted, in reply to Porejide's comment, by johnnycoconut: | Reply

I've just read the Neuroself article after seeing it linked in your comment. Thanks! Here's the Web-Archived version of it that I read (because the domain expired a couple months ago):

Its author makes some good points, which made it worth reading for me, but he blows some matters out of proportion IMO.

Also, I looked at another post of his, and holy shit, he was high-strung/hypersensitive/projecting/passive-aggressively defensive at what "only" (scare-quotes mine) seemed like the standard internet-comment not-necessarily-well-thought-out dramatic criticism "bro do you even understand stats" kind of stuff. I realize I can often be all those things I said he was being and I don't like that and I'm trying to work on it, but he seemed to lack the awareness of this that he'd need to really try to address it. I hope this didn't adversely affect his therapy practice. (Note: this paragraph is not a critique of what he was trying to write about in the post I referred to in the beginning of the paragraph.)

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Suntem o firma Russell Fina... (Below threshold)

March 7, 2015 6:32 AM | Posted by Russell Financial Company Ltd: | Reply

Suntem o firma Russell Financial Company Ltd situat în Londra și în alte țări din Europa, vom oferă atât personale cât și de împrumuturi pentru a satisface nevoile si cerintele dumneavoastra de investiții, Se asemenea, face ambele servicii de împrumut garantate și negarantate pentru consolidarea datoriilor, cheltuieli neprevăzute sau îmbunătățire acasă, afaceri, proiect și mai mult. Serviciile noastre este ieftin și la prețuri accesibile, la rata anuală a dobânzii de 3%.

Vă vom trimite mai multe detalii imediat ce vom primi cererea dumneavoastră de împrumut.

Pentru mai multe informații, Vă rugăm Contact Email: [email protected]

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Ești în nevoie de ajutor fi... (Below threshold)

March 7, 2015 6:35 AM | Posted by Abilio_smith: | Reply

Ești în nevoie de ajutor financiar, cum ar fi oferta de împrumut, dacă da sa ne contactati prin e-mail:? [email protected]

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bienvenidaUsted es... (Below threshold)

March 22, 2015 8:25 PM | Posted by Elliza Powell: | Reply


Usted está en una situación financiera difícil, o qué necesita un préstamo para pagar su préstamo de negocios con el fin de pagar las cuotas o pagar cuentas, préstamos para financiar su educación? Ofrecemos todo tipo de préstamo a una tasa de interés muy baja de 2%, por favor póngase en contacto con nosotros hoy y obtendrá sin perder tiempo.


MR Elliza

CORREO ELECTRÓNICO: [email protected]

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PLANUL MICHAEL de servicii ... (Below threshold)

April 6, 2015 6:21 PM | Posted by Sir Michael: | Reply

PLANUL MICHAEL de servicii financiare
EMAIL ADRESA - [[email protected]]
Oficiul central - 742 Harrow Road London REGATUL UNIT
-------------------------------------------------- -
Sunt Dl Michael Fereira, director și CEO al PLAN MICHAEL de servicii financiare.
PLANUL MICHAEL de servicii financiare este un britanic legitim și bine cunoscute
companie de creditare de împrumut aprobat cu sediul în Londra, Marea Britanie.
Ne sunt finanțate din surse alternative de finanțare, inclusiv planul nostru de servicii financiare

firmă de împrumut

și privat
mare investiție valorii nete.
================================================== ===========================
Va oferim credite pentru persoane fizice, precum și organizațiile care au
intențiile ----
Renovarea case și instituții,
Consolidare a datoriei,
Re-finanțare scopuri,
Stabilirea de tinutele afaceri
================================================== ==========================
Va oferim urmatoarele tipuri de credite pentru clientii nostri ------------
* Credite pe termen lung (20_40years)
* Credite pe termen scurt (5_10years)
* Credite pe termen Media-(10_20years)
* Investitori Credite
* Consolidarea datoriilor
* În al doilea rând Ipoteca
* Credite pentru afaceri
* Credite personale
* Credite International
* Credite interne.
================================================== =====
Candidatii interesati ar trebui să vă rugăm să ne contactați cu adresa de email

\ [email protected]]
EMAIL ADRESA - [[email protected]]
PLANUL MICHAEL de servicii financiare

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Căutați un împrumut? Sau ai... (Below threshold)

May 18, 2015 8:28 AM | Posted by Elina Johnson: | Reply

Căutați un împrumut? Sau ai fost refuzat un împrumut de către o bancă sau o instituție financiară pentru unul sau mai multe motive? Ai locul potrivit pentru soluțiile dvs. de împrumut chiar aici! Elina Johnson firma de împrumut noi sunt limitate în a da împrumuturi pentru companii și persoane fizice, la o rată scăzută și accesibile dobândă de 2%. Va rugam sa ne contactati prin e-mail astăzi prin [email protected]


  1) Numele complet:
  2) Țară:
  3) Adresa: A
  4) Statul:
  5) Sex:
  6) Stare civilă:
  7) Ocupatia:
  8) Numărul de telefon:
  9) Poziția prezent la locul de muncă:
  10) Venitul lunar:
  11) Suma de împrumut Necesare:
  12) Împrumut Durata:
  13) Scopul de împrumut:
  14) Religie:
  15) V-ați aplicat înainte;
  16) Data nașterii;
Mrs Elina Johnson

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Merhaba,Herkes ben S... (Below threshold)

June 21, 2015 7:16 PM | Posted by [email protected]: | Reply

Herkes ben Sayın Franklin Kredi Şirketten arzum kredi miktarı var nasıl benim büyük tanıklığı çok mutlu dışarı veriyorum, ben hızlı bir şekilde bu tüm dünya haberdar etmenin bu fırsatı kullanmak istiyorum, Brezilya Am Mrs Ann Maxwell, ben arama yapıldı Bir kredinin i Hile bazı kredi rastladım zaman kredi arıyor çevrimiçi gitti bu yüzden çocuklar giderleriyle ilgili kocam destek kendi işimi kurmak ve i 'karıştı don var zaman bu süreç benim az para uzakta kandırdı Ben benimle başlamıştı az para tek sadık gününde, gerçek kredi kredi diyorlar o hileli piçlerden tarafından götürüldüğünü Yani çünkü ben iş arıyor internet üzerinden tarama gibi t bile artık ne yapacağımı biliyorum ben bazı tanıklıklar rastladım Onlar Bay Franklin Kredi Şirket E-postası kendi kredi almak nasıl bir Mr Andrew Fred ve Bayan Monica Luis foruma yorumladı: [email protected] i konusunda o kadar korkmuştum çünkü ben bu deneme vermek gerektiğini kendi kendime dedim Yani Başkalarının kredi bana yaptığı, Yani ben önde gitti forumunda bu yorumlarda oldu onun kişisel e-posta adresini aldı yüzden, ona ben onun şirket kendi kredi almıştır bazı müşteriler tarafından kendisine sezonda olduğu kendisine bildiren temas Bay Andrew Fred ve Bayan Monica Luis Yani o bu konuda çok mutlu olduğunu duyunca, Yani benim arzu kredi miktarını alabilir nerede o doğru şirkette ben bana güvence verdi, Onlar bana doldurmak için borçlu kredi başvuru formu verdi ve dönüş, ben bütün bu yaptım verilen onları benim gerekli bilgiler benimle ilgili, Yani ben 600.000 $ benim kredi geçerli toplamı verildi en az 24hours her şeyi herhangi bir gecikme olmadan sorunsuz gitti onların şirket, koşullarını ve durumunu verildi tüm usd kayıtlı ve onlar ben bankacılık detayları ile gönderebilirsiniz gerektiğini söylediğinde ben çok mutlu oldu zaman bu süreçte Böylece, mütevelli kendi kredilendirme kurulu tarafından onaylanmış, ama ben çok ben güven ve dedi ki yapmanın biraz şüpheci oldu edilmiştir Sayın Franklin Scott dediğimiz bu borç için inanıyorum, ben alırsınız bu yüzden şaşırtıcı banka hesabına onları verdi ve hesabım Sayın Franklin Scott $ 600,000usd toplamı ile kredi olmuştur benim bankadan uyarı, WOW..i neredeyse bayıldı, Yani ben acilen i başarıyla benim kredi almak olduğunu ona e-posta Yani hala gerçek kredi şirketi arayan sevgili kardeşlerim ve orada kardeş i lütfen bu aynı e-posta ile Sayın Franklin Scott irtibata olacak tavsiyeler: [email protected] ve biliyorum o da tamam arzu kredi miktarı ile size yardımcı bugün onlara e-posta ve size mi mutlu olacak olacak.

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Buna ziua, Cautati un împru... (Below threshold)

July 15, 2015 10:25 AM | Posted by Mr Peterson: | Reply

Buna ziua, Cautati un împrumut de afaceri, credit de nevoi personale, împrumut acasă, etc ..? Va oferim personale și de afaceri de împrumut la orice persoană interesată
la 2 rata dobânzii% de la 1 la 30 de ani.
Data nașterii:
Starea civilă:
Sumă Împrumutată:
Împrumut Durata:
Venitul lunar net.
Contacteaza-ne: [email protected]

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Buna ziua, Cautati un împru... (Below threshold)

July 16, 2015 1:01 AM | Posted by Mr Peterson: | Reply

Buna ziua, Cautati un împrumut de afaceri, credit de nevoi personale, împrumut acasă, etc ..? Va oferim personale și de afaceri de împrumut la orice persoană interesată
la 2 rata dobânzii% de la 1 la 30 de ani.
Data nașterii:
Starea civilă:
Sumă Împrumutată:
Împrumut Durata:
Venitul lunar net.
Contacteaza-ne: [email protected]

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Hallo, ich boxim Mr. Samson... (Below threshold)

August 1, 2015 11:48 PM | Posted by mr samson: | Reply

Hallo, ich boxim Mr. Samson, persönliche Darlehen Kreditgeber, die Kredite zu liefern. ob
Sie benötigen ein Darlehen zu zahlen Sie Ihre Schulden oder Sie einen Kredit brauchen,
verbessern Ihr Unternehmen? Sie haben von der Bank und andere abgelehnt
Finanzinstituten? Sie benötigen eine Konsolidierung Darlehen oder Hypotheken? Suche
für mehr, denn wir sind hier, um alle Ihre finanziellen Probleme Geschichte zu machen.
Wir leihen, um Personen in finanzieller Not
Helfen Sie, die schlechte Kredit-oder brauchen Geld, um Rechnungen zu bezahlen, um
Investitionen in Unternehmen in der Höhe von 2%. Ich möchte dieses Medium zu nutzen
Ihnen sagen, dass wir zuverlässige Hilfe an den Empfänger und
wären bereit, Darlehen anbieten zu können. So kontaktieren Sie uns heute per E-Mail an: [email protected]

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HERE IS MY SUCCESS STORY: <... (Below threshold)

August 7, 2015 3:25 PM | Posted by Anonymous: | Reply

In west Philadelphia born and raised
On the playground was where I spent most of my days
Chillin' out maxin' relaxin' all cool
And all shootin some b-ball outside of the school
When a couple of guys who were up to no good
Started making trouble in my neighborhood
I got in one little fight and my mom got scared
She said 'You're movin' with your auntie and uncle in Bel Air'

I begged and pleaded with her day after day
But she packed my suit case and sent me on my way
She gave me a kiss and then she gave me my ticket.
I put my Walkman on and said, 'I might as well kick it'.

First class, yo this is bad
Drinking orange juice out of a champagne glass.
Is this what the people of Bel-Air living like?
Hmmmmm this might be alright.

But wait I hear they're prissy, bourgeois, all that
Is this the type of place that they just send this cool cat?
I don't think so
I'll see when I get there
I hope they're prepared for the prince of Bel-Air

Well, the plane landed and when I came out
There was a dude who looked like a cop standing there with my name out
I ain't trying to get arrested yet
I just got here
I sprang with the quickness like lightning, disappeared

I whistled for a cab and when it came near
The license plate said fresh and it had dice in the mirror
If anything I could say that this cab was rare
But I thought 'Nah, forget it' - 'Yo, home to Bel Air'

I pulled up to the house about 7 or 8
And I yelled to the cabbie 'Yo home smell ya later'
I looked at my kingdom
I was finally there
To sit on my throne as the Prince of Bel Air

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