October 3, 2008

CNBC Ratings Predicts Bailout To Pass, VIX To Fall

cnbc 10-2.JPG
Pearson's r=.929

As it appears CNBC ratings anticipate the VIX,  then the VIX should fall today or Monday, and the only way I see that happening is that the bill gets passed.  Since the folks at trader-talk.com seem to like me doing this, I'll make it a weekly thing.


The financiers are snookeri... (Below threshold)

October 3, 2008 9:52 AM | Posted by Bryant Arms: | Reply

The financiers are snookering us again. We, the taxpayers, will never see that money once Congress caves in to special interests, (as usual). If we try to get it back by taxing these businesses, then they will take the good parts of their portfolios and flee to other countries. Suckers!

If we use that money to enhance social security, then all of the retirees that lost their retirement funds in the stock market will at least be guaranteed a reasonably comfortable retirement. (The only ones who will still be unhappy are the ones trying to retire to their mansions.)

Finally! Congress has found the money to make social security work.

Let Congress know that if they get fooled by this bailout, then the only thing for voters to do is punish congress the way it was punished for the gulf war.

Bryant Arms

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The intent of the bill is n... (Below threshold)

October 3, 2008 10:14 AM | Posted by m (2): | Reply

The intent of the bill is not to benefit Wall Street, although it undoubtedly will, but to free up credit so small businesses can continue to operate. It also benefits individuals trying to get mortgages (and other loans) and, if the market rebounds, will help those who lost value in their portfolios during the recent downturn. People whose money was heavily invested in sub-prime mortgages will probably still suffer, as those mortgages are purportedly being sold to the government at fire sale prices.

I am aware of a small business that has had to lay off a number of people and cut hours for remaining staff because it couldn't get an operating loan to bridge its off-season. The current panic has caused the company's sales to drop by 50% over the last month.

If this is happening to one company, it's happening to many.

I hate the "relief" package, too; hate its necessity; hate the orgy of greed that brought us to this point. But if we don't do something soon, millions more innocent people will suffer in the form of higher layoffs, more loan defaults, diminished (or demolished) savings, and lower consumer spending. Consumer spending accounts for approximately 70% of our GDP, btw.

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Where does one go for accur... (Below threshold)

October 3, 2008 10:27 AM | Posted by demodenise: | Reply

Where does one go for accurate, non-hyped market news, anyway? (Not that there's much that's not hyped these days. . .)

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You're missing the point... (Below threshold)

October 3, 2008 12:02 PM | Posted, in reply to demodenise's comment, by Alone: | Reply

You're missing the point, the beauty, of this.

The hype IS the news, it IS the markets. Trying to trade in this market based on fundamentals is impossible. BAC, which arguably was one of the causes of this crisis, is now trading at the same price it was before this all broke out. Meanwhile, GOOG, innocent of all charges-- well, take a look.

Identifying each person's biases is all that matters. Whether this bailout bill works, or not, in the short term is irrelevant-- what matters is what people think will happen.

For example, I think hedge funds are dying left and right. So they will dump anything they can to raise money, even if the stocks are good ones-- hence RIMM, GOOG, etc-- and this is likely to continue.

Of course, over time, fundamentals will win out-- ask Buffett. But I, at least, have no edge in that department. I know GOOG will someday rule the world, but beyond that, I have no idea. Hell, if you want to invest for the long term, then buy BRK.a/b (I own it.) Buffett now has made such key purchases that he's likely to win for decades to come.

P.S. VIX is down 8% as I write this.

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OH!! I think my brain just ... (Below threshold)

October 3, 2008 12:30 PM | Posted, in reply to Alone's comment, by demodenise: | Reply

OH!! I think my brain just exploded. Damn.

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This is not your average be... (Below threshold)

October 5, 2008 3:50 AM | Posted by ActiveTrader: | Reply

This is not your average bear market. CNBComedy viewers are starting to realize this...and watch less. Too busy stocking up on Gold, Food and Ammo.

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